Nottingham Forest will not be relegated this season.
It is a bold statement, coming after only 11 games of the 2023-24 Premier League, but, barring a complete disaster or any kind of self-inflicted crisis, Forest have a squad with sufficient quality and character to comfortably finish clear of the bottom three.
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With respect, it is hard to envisage a world where they finish in May with fewer points than three of Sheffield United, Burnley, Bournemouth and Luton Town. With Everton and Wolverhampton Wanderers also having had plenty of uncertain moments, Forest would have to underperform significantly to be sucked back into the Championship for next season.
The squad that secured survival in the penultimate game of last season has been significantly strengthened and, in Steve Cooper, they have a head coach who will benefit from the experience of his first year at Premier League level. As he has said himself, you never learn more than in times of adversity.
If they can avoid complacency, Forest should have enough about them to avoid another fight against the drop.
But, while that would undoubtedly represent progress from 2022-23, another question remains: in the eyes of Forest’s owner Evangelos Marinakis and the supporters, would that be enough?
Few clubs, upon promotion to the top flight, cap their ambitions at finishing 16th or 17th out of the 20 every season.
And historically, there can have been few bigger catalysts for managerial change than the gulf between expectation and reality. The cold, hard truth is that Cooper will remain under some degree of pressure for as long as Forest do not meet the goals of their ambitious owner.
This is not a criticism. There is nothing wrong with craving success. Forest just spent 23 years desperate to get back into the Premier League, after all.
Cooper is popular among most Forest fans (Michael Regan/Getty Images)And Marinakis has never been shy about voicing his ambitions.
Amid the promotion celebrations, he spoke on the balcony of Nottingham Council House about wanting Forest to compete for trophies again. And after the 1-0 win at Chelsea two months ago, in the aftermath of a deadline day that had seen Forest take their tally of new additions during the window to 13, the Greek shipping magnate wrote a letter to the supporters.
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One section stood out.
“Our vision for the club is clear and unwavering: we are on a path to reestablish Nottingham Forest as a dominant force in English football,” it read. “This journey is not just about the short-term, it’s about building a sustainable future. We are investing in youth development, nurturing young talent, and building a squad that can compete at the highest level for years to come.”
Marinakis’ target is for Forest to follow in the footsteps of fellow Midlands side Aston Villa who, in their fourth season following promotion back to the Premier League, finished seventh in May and, by doing so, secured qualification for the Europa Conference League.
All of which should be music to Forest fans’ ears. But, at the risk of sounding like the club’s former manager Billy Davies, the path to that level will be paved with plenty of ups and downs. And the line between expectation and reality can easily become blurred.
Following a run of six games without a win in September and October, Cooper found himself under scrutiny again. When Marinakis arrived in Nottingham two days before last weekend’s home game against Villa, it felt significant.
The club’s owner can regularly be spotted sitting in the directors’ box at the City Ground, in his own specially-made seat — one decked out with its own TV, used to watch replays of key incidents. But this time there was also a desire to seek answers over what felt like a slight stutter in form.
And, while every single point gained had been celebrated as Forest clawed their way to survival last season, it was a sign of the shift in mentality that home draws with Burnley, Brentford and Luton were now viewed as disappointments, by supporters and hierarchy alike.
If not for the late collapse in the 2-2 draw with Luton and several missed opportunities in the goalless draw away to Palace, Forest could easily be four points better off today. Which would have them in ninth place now, just one behind Manchester United and with one point less than Brighton & Hove Albion, who occupy the seventh and final European spot.
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Again, to lean into one of Davies’ favourite phrases, ‘small margins’ can make a massive difference. What is vital between now and May is that Forest navigate a course through any disappointment, as much as they celebrate any successes.
There have been landmark moments in recent times.
The signing of Ibrahim Sangare, who had been lusted after by some of the top clubs in Europe, was one. Landing international players such as Nicolas Dominguez, Odysseas Vlachodimos, Matt Turner, Anthony Elanga and Ola Aina — and exciting youngsters including Murillo, who will surely play for Brazil — has altered the landscape.
How long has it been since Forest fans could look forward to watching their players perform at the Africa Cup of Nations and European Championship, as they will get to do in 2024?
Before last year’s promotion, Forest’s transfer record was the £13.2million ($16.1m by today’s rates) they handed Benfica for Joao Carvalho in 2018. Now, spending £15m or more on a player is a relatively regular occurrence. They spent twice that amount on both Sangare and Morgan Gibbs-White.
It is no wonder that expectations have changed.
Sangare arrived with a big reputation (Alex Livesey/Getty Images)The old phrase says that if you shoot for the stars, you might reach the Moon. They are wise words. But the challenge is not to find your head in the clouds at the same time.
Another Midlands side, Stoke City, finished ninth in the Premier League for three consecutive seasons under Mark Hughes between 2013-14 and 2015-16. With the benefit of hindsight, that was a tremendous achievement. But that third season was viewed as a lack of progress. And when they then finished 13th a year later, it was seen as a significant step backwards.
Hughes was sacked in January 2018, with Stoke struggling at the wrong end of the table, and they were relegated at the end of that season under Paul Lambert. Five years and four managers later they are still in the Championship, having finished no higher than 14th out of 24 in that time (though they are currently 13th).
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Of the teams to be promoted since the Premier League era began, 40 have been relegated in their first season. Last season was only the fourth time since the competition’s 1992-93 debut campaign that all three promoted sides survived. And survival was all that mattered for Forest.
But what would represent success for them this season?
Some would say anything outside of the bottom three, and the chance for Forest to kick on from there and establish themselves as Premier League regulars again. Others might see a mid-table finish as being a reasonable target. Some might want more still.
Ultimately, nobody’s opinion will matter more than that of Marinakis.
But whatever the expectations, the foundations for Forest’s success over the past two seasons have been togetherness and belief — among players, coaching staff, supporters and, when it mattered, the hierarchy.
There were times when Marinakis pondered replacing his head coach. Their relationship has occasionally been fractious. Marinakis admitted after survival had been secured that the stumbling block had, at one stage, been the inability to appoint somebody obviously better than the man they’d be succeeding.
Following that disastrous draw with Luton, there were even a few calls from fans for Cooper to be replaced. They were vastly in the minority, but such a notion would have been unheard of only a few months ago. The Welshman himself will have recognised the familiar feeling of the ground beginning to crumble, ever so slightly, beneath his feet.
Chris Wood scored twice against Luton but Forest still dropped points (Tony Marshall/Getty Images)“The expectation is a mark of the progress we have made,” Cooper said before the win over Villa. “We cannot lose sight of the fact that we are in a better place than we were 12 months ago.
“If we are (reacting with disappointment to) drawing a couple of games at home, it is a sign of progress.
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“When somebody shows belief in me or reacts with positivity towards me, it gets the best out of me. If we want to continue to progress, we have to believe, we have to be confident and we have to understand that we can achieve. It will continue to be a rocky road, because that is the sport we are involved in. But I would not want it any other way.”
Until the gap between expectation and reality is narrowed, there will always be pressure on Cooper. Uncertainty and instability will never be far away.
As detailed at the top of this article, Forest are unlikely to be relegated in May but just how much progress they can make this season could be influenced by the ability to retain a sense of perspective without it being at the expense of ambition.
(Top photo: Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
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